The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for . Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not seem to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Although respected cash has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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